I'll accept that picture three is the same person as person one with age progression and makeup. But take a look at the cheek bone structure in picture two. Nose is somewhat different.
With a good theatrical quality make-up kit, I could change the person in pictures one and two into the person in picture two. But if these were all casual pictures, not a covert op, or some other unusual effort at changing appearence, I'd say person two is a different person.
Sorry, I no longer have access to a biometric or Bertillion-type photo analysis program. But I'd guess picture two is somebody else.
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